The Greek economy is expected to grow by 6.7% this year, by 4.8% in 2022 and by 2.9% in 2023, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday. In its semi-annual report on global economic outlook, the Paris-based organisation said that strong economic growth in Greece will be based on an improving business climate and a national recovery plan which will boost incomes and investments, while state support will continue – although limited – to support incomes and consumption in 2022, with the minimum wage rising by 2% from the start of 2022. Exports are projected to rise due to a recovery in global demand and global tourism.
Investments and private consumption are projected to rise by 17.3% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2022, from 14% and 2.1% this year, while exports are projected to grow by 14.2% this year and 13% in 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to ease to 14.65 in 2021 from 16.3% in 2020 and to drop to 12.9% in 2022.
The OECD said that the main risk is a deterioration of the pandemic which could lead to new travel restrictions and undermine tourism recovery. Inflationary expectations are rising, but price increases could possibly be limited because of the slow production capacity of the economy. The harmonised inflation index is projected to reach 3.1% in 2022, with core inflation at 1.9%. The country’s fiscal deficit is projected to fall from 9.6% of GDP this year to 4.0% in 2022 while a primary surplus is expected in 2023. The public debt reached 206.3% of GDP in 2020, falling to 192% in 2021 and 180.6% in 2022 and 174.6% in 2023. The OECD recommends policies to support the labour market and education, measures to boost efficiency in the public sector and to promote digitalisation of public services and completion of efforts to restore the robustness of banks.